Chinese President Xi Jinping’s dream of the
Great Rise of the Chinese Nation has been interpreted to contain several
facets. First, is the purge of corruption known to have plagued and impaired
the Chinese State. Consequently, tens of thousands of civil servants, party
officials and army officers have been charged and jailed for crimes against the
nation. The credibility of the communist party, specifically in the context of a
single party state, hinges on the perception that its administration is fair.
The second aspect is an increased assertiveness across its borders, but
particularly within the Asian region, which China believes is well within its
backyard. The tensions in the South and East China Seas are a reflection of the
new paradigm. The third is economic growth, which China considers essential to
keep urban middle-classes gratified, critical in an authoritarian state where
elections cannot replace the party in power. It is for this reason that it
consistently pump-primes its economy to ensure that growth does not fall below
6.5%, even at the risk of serious indebtedness. Debt as a proportion of
national output now exceeds 300%.
This policy comes with risk for China, but
also holds far-reaching implications for the rest of the world. For instance an
economic stumble will shock the world’s financial architecture, as China is now
the second largest economy and the largest trading nation. Capital and trade
flows will waver, taking many countries into worrying levels of recession.
China’s claims on the South and East China seas brings it directly into
maritime disputes with several countries, including Vietnam, the Philippines
and Japan but also influences sea routes affecting the bulk of Asean members. Its
land border disputes with India, culminating most recently in a stand off on the
Doklam plateau, are another indication of its new found aggressiveness. Whilst
the matter may appear to have been set aside for the moment, it is by no means
settled and such instances analysts believe will come up again and again,
keeping India on its toes.
Mr Xi believes, perhaps with some faint
degree of justification, that the time has come for China to occupy its
rightful place within the international community of nations and revert to its
ancient status as the Middle Kingdom to which all roads, so to speak,
ultimately led. During the reign of the Han dynasty over 2000 years ago, China
extended its trade links under the imperial envoy Zang Qian through regions in
Central Asia connecting the east and west. The Silk Road stretched from the
Hermit Kingdom – Korea – to the shores of the Mediterranean. It embraced the
Indian Subcontinent, Persia, Europe and the Horn of Africa. Its maritime
version contained South East Asia, the Indian Peninsula and Somalia. Whilst
silk was the primary Chinese export, other goods, religions and philosophies
were traded as well.The Silk Road connected the Middle Kingdom, which the
Chinese believed was the centre of the world, and its civilisation to far off
lands and beyond. It would be reasonable to say that the Han Imperial Household
had established global domination through trade and philosophy. Mr Xi seeks to
reinforce this ancient world order where nations offer subservience to China
and in return enjoy the remunerations of trade with its huge markets.
China’s expansionary policies have worrying
implications for its immediate and even distant neighbours. For instance, its
claims that the South China Sea falls within its territorial purview is based
on ancient maps casting aside protests from countries with more legitimate
entitlements. The withdrawal of America from the global geo-political scenario,
initiated during the Obama administration and reinforced more forcefully by
President Donald Trump through his ‘America First’ policy, have created a vacuum
in different parts of the world. The rise of the Islamic State is perhaps the
most tangible consequence. The fact that China’s assertiveness in South East
Asia received only feeble protests from affected countries with very little
support from America, has only strengthened its conviction. China believes that
the Asian region lies perfectly within its domain and it will continue to
stretch the fabric in the absence of a justifiable response.
Analysts suspect that the stand-off in Doklam
is another example of this strategy. The Chinese Government had not expected
that India would take a hard position. It believed this time that the risk of
military conflict would have on balance not served its greater interest and
hence, grudgingly stepped back to the original status quo. China’s border with
India extends for thousands of kilometres from the North East across Uttaranchal,
Himachal and Ladakh. Military planners worry that some time at a later date
China may choose to create aggression in the northern territories where it may
have a tactical advantage. Some even suspect that it will do so at a time when the
impact of its actions will bring the maximum humiliation for Indian authorities
and its leadership. India’s refusal to participate in the Belt and Road
Initiative, allegedly the trigger for the Chinese intrusion in Doklam, has a
logical basis. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passes through vast Indian
territories, which Pakistan has illegally occupied. Until recently, China had
remained reasonably neutral with respect to India-Pakistan dynamics. But this
has now changed with the CPEC, which creates a disturbing complication for
military planners affecting the border between India and Pakistan.
Editorials in the official Chinese media
have spoken of a number of regressive steps, which the Chinese authorities
should consider. These include the revival of north east insurgency; a reversal
of their previously agreed position on Sikkim; the launching of a campaign to
disrupt India’s strategic ties with Bhutan; and even create disruptions along
the Ladakh border at the behest of Pakistan. For now things appear to be more
settled but the matter is by no means over. India’s response, particularly
after 2014 by the BJP Government, has been to increase defence spending, an
area that lacked attention for a ten-year period during the previous
Government. It seeks to strengthen its relationship with Japan both through investment
and defence technology and realign ties with America, particularly through the
procurement of military hardware.
Be that as it may, in the final count,
power comes with economic might. China’s economy is five times larger and
therefore so is its military capability and international influence. Mr Xi will
in the least serve another five-year term as China’s leader and head of its
military commission. Some suspect he might even serve longer. His underlying
philosophy of the Rise of the Chinese Nation will be unable to accommodate
another emerging power in its backyard. India will therefore constantly be
nagged and future disruptive skirmishes should therefore come as no surprise. At
the end of the day, what India really needs to do is to ensure that its economy
grows at 8-9% a year on a sustained basis for at least a decade or longer. A
large economy complements a strong and powerful nation.
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